an impressive feat for a closer on a team that won 83 games
St. Louis Cardinals closer Ryan Helsley is really good. I mean, like really, really good. Per Fangraphs, he was the top reliever in the National League in 2024 and tied for third best in baseball with 2.3 fWAR. I linked to the page to show how the rest of league stacks up, but actually, maybe you shouldn’t look at it. It will show you two other relievers that had better seasons than Helsley and that would really undercut my point. There was Cade Smith coming in first at 2.7 fWAR with an incredible 1.91 ERA, 35.6% K-rate, and a HR/9 of 0.12 in just over 75 innings pitched. Then there is Griffen Jax with very similar, but just the tiniest bit worse, numbers. Tied with Helsley in fWAR is Mason Miller who throws his fastball at 101.1 mph on average and has a strikeout to walk rate of 33.3%. The top relievers were truly standouts this season.
Besides being a pitcher in the National League, Helsley does have something those other pitchers do not, however, and I think that is another factor in why the award went to him. Ryan Helsley ended the 2024 season with 49 saves, which was not only the most saves in the National League by 11, or the most saves in Major League Baseball, but it is also a Cardinals record, beating the 48-save season from Trevor Rosenthal in 2015. Something interesting about that: the 2015 Cardinals won 100 games; the 2024 Cardinals won 83. The Cardinals in 2015 had a +122 run differential; the 2024 Cardinals had -47 run differential. All but six saves for the Cardinals were attributed to Ryan Helsley and in his 65 appearances, only 4 saves were blown.
While we tend to try to think about baseball using cold, hard facts — it certainly makes it easier to make tough choices, right? — there is an undeniable human element to the game. That is why you cannot just run a simulation and predict the outcome of every game. Humans add a messiness to things that make it more interesting. That is the space I think it is fun to look at — the sliver of shadow between data-driven facts and conventional wisdom: the penumbra. While facts suggest that throwing your pitchers in an order that favors them in contrast to upcoming hitter skill and handedness would net the most positive results, squint a little and there, in the shadow of that all that data, is a little thing called pressure and an even bigger thing called fatigue. There is certainly some added pressure in being the absolute last pitcher in the game and knowing that the smallest mistake could be difference between your team walking off the field in victory or watching the opponent celebrate at home plate. Professional athletes do not usually get to professional sports by being a person that often folds under pressure, but it is a lot to ask of someone to night after night carry that burden. A closer on a good team might expect to be called upon two of every three games, to prepare a plan and review scouting reports, to endure their adrenaline spiking frequently, and, of course, to perform extraordinary acts of physical strength and dexterity. There is a mental and physical strain to being the Final Boss. Maybe you think my brain is straining from the mental gymnastics to try to further justify this award for Helsley, but the Trevor Hoffman Reliever of the Year Award tends to go to closers and I suspect these reasons might factor in to why. Closing out a lot of games is just plain difficult.
This award also sort of highlights what has been three years of growth for Helsley. Since 2022, when Helsley more officially took over the role as closer, he has amassed 5.8 fWAR, which is second behind Emmanual Clase in that time frame. He has a 1.83 ERA to a 2.35 FIP. He has over an 80% LOB percentage, allowed 0.54 HR/9, and has a K% of 34.6% while racking up 82 saves. And this year he did it all for $3.8 million. Helsley earns his way into arbitration eligibility in the 2025 season and is set to become a free agent in 2026. Meanwhile the Cardinals are looking to make some changes and build for the future. Those factors have lead many speculate that the Cardinals will look to sell high on Helsley this offseason. There have been several discussions at Viva El Birdos already on what that trade might look like.
It would be hard to see that Cardinals part with one of the more interesting and exciting elements of this recent vintage of Cardinals teams, but it certainly makes a lot of sense for them to do so. If that is the case, the Cardinals can be happy having pulled, per Fangraphs, over $46 million in value during that time. On a more personal level, Helsley’s Cardinals career would end on a high note as the Trevor Hoffman Reliever of the Year. In a storied list of Cardinals closers — Bruce Sutter, Jason Isringhausen, Trevor Rosenthal — Ryan Helsely should go down as one of — and arguably the best of — the best.
Here is some more coverage from around the Internets on Ryan Helsley as a trade candidate (Hunt and Peck style):
Here’s why the Cardinals may, or may not trade closer Ryan Helsley | Bellville News Democrat | Jeff Jones
Cardinals have decision to make with Helsley | MLB.com | John Denton
A look at past deals for pitchers like Helsley | Viva El Birdos | Gabe Simonds
Examining trade fits for Ryan Helsley | Viva El Birdos | Curtbishop98
Exit Interview 2024: Ryan Helsley | Cardinals Conclave | C70
