There are several teams that seem to be a fit for the Cardinals third baseman.
With the Winter Meetings wrapping up earlier this week, it looks like the wheels of the Major League Baseball offseason are starting to turn. The St. Louis Cardinals are a team in transition, or, at the very least, a team making a bit of a pivot and refocus. There are few players that are expected to be moved over this offseason. Third baseman Nolan Arenado is an obvious one.
According to Spotrac Arenado is owed $74 million on his contract yet; $21 million for the 2025 season, $16 million for 2026, and $15 million for 2027, plus deferred payments totaling $2 million per year from 2022 to 2041. The Colorado Rockies still owe $10 million of the $74 million. The team direction for the Cardinals has changed and the team is looking to get younger and add financial flexibility. Getting out from under some of that salary obligation would be, as John Mozeliak said, “a big help” financially.
There is also Nolan Arenado’s preferences to consider. According to Arenado’s agent Joel Wolfe, Arenado wants to join a contender. This was what he expressed when he was traded to the Cardinals before the 2021 season. The Cardinals made the postseason in 2021 and 2022, but had a losing record in a terrible 2023 and missed the postseason in 2024 with a record just above .500. As a player that has never been to the World Series, Arenado might be especially motivated to find the team that can get him there. As his agent said to reporters, Arenado wants to play for “A team that he thinks is going to win now and consistently for the remainder of his career… He wants a team that has the throttle down — not saying that the Cardinals don’t — but one where he can jump right in and they’re going to win right now. … He’s good.”
The good news for Arenado in that regard is that he has a No Trade Clause (NTC). This means he cannot be traded to any team without his approval. So far it has been reported that he would be willing to wave his NTC for at least six teams: Los Angeles Angels, Los Angeles Dodgers, San Diego Padres, Philadelphia Phillies, New York Mets, or Boston Red Sox, but likely more.
With Arenado being from California — he was born in Newport Beach — the California teams make a lot of sense for him geographically. The Dodgers and Padres are both teams should be completive right away which is what Arenado is reportedly looking for. The Dodgers seem like a very unlikely target, though. According to reporting from Katie Woo of The Athletic, the Dodgers have a regular third baseman in Max Muncy and are not considering a trade for Arenado. The Angels don’t seem to fit his desire to be on a competitive team, but maybe the potential to be closer to friends and family further outweighs that drawback for him. San Diego, of course, has a Gold Glove third baseman in Manny Machado. Arenado did mention he would be willing to move to first base, which might help look like more of an option to teams with regular third baseman.
The Padres, along with the Red Sox, have been speculated to be talking to the Cardinals about Arenado in recent weeks. There has also been some reporting by Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post Dispatch that the Cardinals have been talking to the Yankees. The Yankees are not on the list reported by John Denton of the MLB.com, but it seems likely that Arenado would approve a trade to New York. The Yankees are also the team that is most in need of a third baseman among the teams mentioned thus far, though there is one more team that matches up well with the Cardinals and Arenado.
Dayn Perry of CBS Sports thinks the Phillies are the likeliest landing spot. Per Perry, “…I’ll say he winds up with the (Philadelphia) Phillies, possibly along with closer Ryan Helsley. A deal for Arenado would of course mean a likely trade of Alec Bohm, which itself seems to be a strong possibility. Citizens Bank Park wouldn’t be a bad fit for Arenado’s pull-power tendencies, and he’s still useful with the glove.”
While where Arenado lands is still up in the air, what seems to be an almost certainty is that he will be moved this offseason. It just doesn’t make sense for him to stay based on the Cardinals needs and Arenado’s wishes. Personally, I sure am going to miss watching him at the hot corner wearing the Birds on the Bat, but maybe it is time for a new start for both him and the Cardinals. He is off to great places. Today is his day. His mountain is waiting so… he’ll get on his way.
