Plus a chance to vote on the #9 prospect
I’m going to momentarily put pause on the Winter Warmup material. I have an idea in mind for my next Winter Warmup related post, but it requires multiple interview snippets. I have only transcribed the John Mozeliak interview, so that would take time. Plus, it’s an idea that would be weird with no input from Oliver Marmol, who speaks after this article is posted. Plus let’s keep the train moving on the top prospects list. I will probably have something for you on Thursday though.
Don’t call it a comeback. Bernal has been here for years. Yes, Bernal is the #8 prospect, despite I think never at any point in the voting getting more votes than Cooper Hjerpe. Of course, in those votes, other players were more popular than both, which is why you can’t make assumptions. Even still, it sort of feels pointless to hold this upcoming vote, because this is either going to be the biggest upset we’ve ever had in the voting or a blowout. It not being a blowout would be an upset I think? Here is the current list:
- JJ Wetherholt, SS
- Quinn Mathews, LHP
- Tink Hence, RHP
- Thomas Saggese, 2B/3B
- Jimmy Crooks III, C
- Michael McGreevy, RHP
- Chase Davis, OF
- Leonardo Bernal, C
Comparable Player Corner
Speaking of results that I think I know, today’s comparable player corner is between two very similar prospects, at least to me. Both are older prospects, both are left-handed, and both seem to have a similar upside/likelihood profile. Some may disagree with the latter characterization. Both were invited to spring training.
Matt Koperniak, a left-handed corner outfielder who was recently added to the 40 man roster (he was Rule 5 eligible) who broke out last season with a 126 wRC+ with a .351 BABIP. He will be playing next season at 27.
Cesar Prieto, a left-handed 2B/3B, who is somehow still not Rule 5 eligible. He had a 95 wRC+ last season with a .296 BABIP with career highs in ISO and HRs. He will be playing next season at 26.
New addition
Looking at last year’s list, there are a few options left. Max Rajcic and Ian Bedell were both soundly defeated in a comparable player poll by Gordon Graceffo, so I think I can wait for both of them. The next highest eligible player is a reliever. So, it really comes down to two candidates. Both have already been on comparable player polls. So I chose the one who won a greater percentage of his vote, Travis Honeyman.
Won-Bin Cho, OF – 21
LYR: #11
Stats (High A): 107 G, 428 PAs, .227/.307/.305, 8.4 BB%, 31.3 K%, .078 ISO, .343 BABIP, 81 wRC+, 74 DRC+
BP: “Cho profiles favorably in the field, a solid corner outfield defender thanks to above-average speed and adequate reads, but is likely stretched in center field.”
There is no question that Cho had a huge setback last season. Some may even call it a lost year. Hopefully, he uses the lessons from that year to improve his game. He still has time. He is entering his age 21 season and playing at High A, which is still pretty young for his level despite the “lost” year.
Gordon Graceffo, RHP – 25
LYR: #6
Stats (AAA): 27 G, 130 IP, 18.4 K%, 8.6 BB%, 40.2 GB%, .328 BABIP, 4.85 ERA/5.17 FIP/5.17 xFIP
BP: “He averaged 92.8 in Triple-A and 93.5 in a brief spell in the majors this season, and at that velocity his fastball shape really isn’t enough to miss bats and his changeup doesn’t play as well as a swing-and-miss pitch.”
Graceffo is still in the mix to start in the future, at least as of this writing. The Cardinals may, and the overlords at Roster Resource clearly think this, put Graceffo in the bullpen this year, which would be a way of allowing him to figure out how to get MLB hitters out in shorter stints first. That was the plan with Liberatore. Now, whether or not they end up moving to back to the rotation after this would certainly be in question if that is the plan.
Cooper Hjerpe, LHP – 24
LYR: #7
Stats (High A): 11 GS, 37.2 IP, 35.2 K%, 12.6 BB%, 50.6 GB%, .297 BABIP, 3.35 ERA/3.57 FIP/3.38 xFIP/3.78 DRA
AA: 4 GS, 14.2 IP, 35.1 K%, 14 BB%, 24.1 GB%, .207 BABIP, 3.07 ERA/2.23 FIP/3.63 xFIP/4.76 DRA
BP: “That Sale-ish weirdo delivery gives Hjerpe a lot of the same positives as Sale, although nowhere near as pronounced and with some concerns attached…. He does not yet possess anything close to Sale’s ability to spot the ball around the strike zone, and his command and control remain spotty.”
It’d just be nice if Hjerpe threw more innings in either of the past two seasons. If you can set that side, it’s hard to ignore how often he missed bats. At every stop. The innings problem could lead to the bullpen, but the strikeouts could lead to becoming an ace-level pitcher.
Travis Honeyman, OF – 23
LYR: #20
Stats (Low A): 14 G, 60 PAs, .321/.367/.446, 5 BB%, 13 K%, .125 ISO, .375 BABIP, 133 wRC+
BP: Honeyman has a punchy little line-drive oriented swing, a tight barrel loop that generates explosive impact out in front of the plate. He’s geared to turn and burn, sending most of his contact to the pull side.
Honeyman has barely played due to injuries, so it’s really hard to know what kind of prospect he is. It’s also hard to know how serious the injury problems will be – if he was a pitcher, I’d be far more concerned, but there is still an obvious level of concern even still. Hopefully he is healthy entering this season.
Chen-Wei Lin, RHP – 23-years-old
LYR: Unranked
Stats (Low A): 22 GS, 116 IP, 26.6 K%, 7.8 BB%, 45.3 GB%, .282 BABIP, 2.79 ERA/2.94 FIP/3.38 xFIP/3.82 DRA
BP: “Lin turns 23 next week and has yet to pitch above Low-A, but whenever a pitcher pairs this sort of velocity on his fastball with an extremely high-whiff changeup, the right dev team is going to have a lot to work with.”
I don’t know if it will happen this year, but my faith in Lin as a prospect will be somewhat contingent on the Cardinals being reasonably aggressive with his promotions. If he spends a year at each level, he won’t debut until he’s 26. I understand why you keep a guy in Low A the entire season – it’s his first full pro season. Going forward, I hope he gets a midseason promotion or two.
Sem Robberse, RHP – 23
LYR: #10
Stats (AAA): 16 G (14 GS), 84.1 IP, 21.8 K%, 7.8 BB%, 44 GB%, .273 BABIP, 4.59 ERA/4.77 FIP/4.61 xFIP/5.25 DRA
BP: Robberse at least has some whiffier offerings in his sweeper and hard changeup—which is only four mph off his fastball—and his cutterish slider has utility too, so of this group he might have the most relief conversion potential.
Robberse had a strong start to his year last year – he allowed 2 or less earned runs in his first six starts – then had a mixture of good and bad starts before an injury knocked him out for two months. The rest of his season was building back up his stamina, but really his season was completely derailed by the injury.
Rainiel Rodriguez, C – 18
LYR: Not in organization
Stats (DSL): 41 G, 184 PAs, .345/.462/.683, 16.3 BB%, 13.6 K%, .338 ISO, .345 BABIP, 186 wRC+
BP: “He hits the ball pretty hard for his age, makes enough contact, controls the zone well, and might stick behind the dish.”
Say what you will about the fact that he did it at the DSL, those are about as perfect of stats as you can get. We pretty much instantly knew Malcolm Nunez’s stats were a mirage when he came over, sucked in Low, and was merely average in the GCL. I doubt the Cardinals send Rodriguez to Low A, but the obvious difference is Nunez was a 1B in the making and Rodriguez at least has a chance to stay a catcher.
Tekoah Roby, RHP – 23
LYR: #4
Stats (AA): 7 GS, 33.1 IP, 21.4 K%, 7.8 BB%, 37.4 GB%, 6.75 ERA/6.59 FIP/4.19 xFIP/5.47 DRA
BP: “Roby is a stuff-model darling. The problem is that Roby just can’t stay healthy, and even when he pitched this year his stuff wasn’t as sharp and he got tattooed.”
I said above that Cho had what amounted to a lost year, but Roby actually had a lost year. He was injured for most of the season and it’s probable his stats were affected by that injury. It remains to be seen if the affer-effects of the injury are long-lasting or short term.
Darlin Saladin, RHP – 22
LYR: Unranked
Stats (Low A): 11 G, 60 IP, 26.8 K%, 7.4 BB%, 44.7 GB%, .287 BABIP, 1.95 ERA/2.61 FIP/3.29 xFIP/3.16 DRA
High A: 12 G, 63 IP, 27.9 K%, 6.2 BB%, 42.8 GB%, 42.8 GB%, .344 BABIP, 3.43 ERA/2.73 FIP/3.29 xFIP/4.00 DRA
BP: “Saladin is another low-VAA fastball oddity king; you can really see the Cardinals trending hard in this direction over the past few years. After three years mostly bopping around the complex, he showed up in A-ball this year and torched both levels working primarily off a low-to-mid-90s heater from a flat angle.”
Saladin was probably the big surprise of the system. You could maybe give that to Quinn Mathews, but we at least knew who he was. Even prospect hounds were caught off guard by Saladin’s ascension. For a guy who spent two years in the DSL and an another in the complex league with not particularly impressive stats, he managed to spend half of his first season in Low A in High A as well.
Zack Showalter, RHP – 21
LYR: #21 (He was close to winning 20th vote)
Stats (Low A): 24 G, 34.1. IP, 38.6 K%, 11.8 BB%, 43.9 GB%, .373 BABIP, 2.62 ERA/2.48 FIP/3.02 xFIP
BP: “His low-90s, sub-4 VAA fastball out of an extremely funky delivery was absurdly dominant against Low-A hitters, and he also weaponized a sweeper against same-side batters for a very tough look.”
Drafted in 2022 and with a 2023 and 2024 that both ended early, Showalter has not yet experienced a full season in pro ball. The innings target that the Cardinals probably had for Showalter was not quite reached, although he did throw more innings than in 2023. Hopefully, he will start some games and throw more innings per appearance than last season.
