Where I look at all of the projections and read the tea leaves on the first official day of spring training 2025

Last week I suddenly realized that all of the projection systems are now published and that my yearly writing project was drawing nigh. So I scrambled and luckily found the time to accomplish such a feat, a study if you will. It is just some basic spreadsheet work, but it does take a little time to do it right. I have been getting all the big holidays lately with articles on Christmas, New Year’s Day, and now Pitcher’s and Catcher’s Report Day.

This year I decided to expand upon what I usually do, simply averaging the projection systems together to find some kind of consensus idea of what is supposedly going to happen. Really this is a lot like meteorology however; this just gives us a pretty good idea of what is likely to happen.

This time I took out the outliers, the highest and lowest projection for each player. Threw them right out the window. So I will show you a chart that details each projected WAR total for 27 players I thought likely to be a part of the 2025 squad. A lot of that has to do with who played last season, but I know this is and always will be a shot in the dark. I will also be looking at the average projection to compare to the middle range projections.

Before the good stuff, the charts! I want to make some observations about the projection systems 2025 Cardinals numbers:

• I included Jimmy Crooks III because of ZIPS 2.2 fWAR projection. without that, I probably would not have included him.
• the projections think Masyn Winn is likely to be the best position player on the team, even with Arenado on the roster.
• Contreras is not as valuable as I thought he would be this year… but hey, they’re just projections. Willson will turn 33 in May so it is time to tell how well his hitting abilities will age. I think he will do better than the projections and will match or come close to Masyn Winn (somewhere around 3 WAR).
• Donovan, Nootbaar, and Herrera should all be around 2.5 WAR each which ain’t too shabby. I could also see all three outpacing that number!
• Sonny Gray is most likely to be the team MVP.
• Similar to Jimmy Crooks III, I included Saggese because of his rather favorable ZIPS projection for 2025. In fact, the projections think Thomas Saggese will be our best bench player.
• The projections don’t seem to be all that impressed with our bench. Siani and Helman look to be a hair above replacement level. Hopefully that is not true and Siani can save us enough runs to make himself valuable. Helman might help the bench more than we think.
• Perhaps surprisingly, the projection systems that had the least amount of outliers in their numbers were Fangraphs Depth Charts, ATC, and something called OOPSY. Steamer was the best at avoiding outliers when considering starting position players, but it had more outliers than the aforementioned when it comes to the bench and pitching staff.
• ZIPS and The Bat X had the most outliers, but are probably both the most different from the other systems. I included both ZIPS systems because it is largely seen as the most accurate.
• The projections actually don’t hate on Burleson, Walker, and Gorman. The consensus is that they will all be a 1+ WAR player. What if those three dudes just start hitting?
• ZIPS thinks Michael McGreevy and Quinn Matthews will make up a large portion of the starting rotation’s WAR total, surprisingly enough.

Time for that glorious WAR chart! through the embedding process, sbnation somehow added that balloon effect to those rightmost numbers, thought that was a bit peculiar

X-1 (second to last column) means the average projection

Only if all of our position players hit their most optimistic projections can we compete with the Cubs lineup. I will go over their players and why they’re considered the team to beat in the NL Central, next week. Yes, every season the Cubs go into the season as favorites I’m a little annoyed, but hey, what can you do. I will also of course analyze the Brewers projections, just in case they should be the favorites! I hope not. Either way, it will suck.

That said, our pitching is just as good as the Cubs, so if we can get our position players to match their potential, we will stand a chance, in my opinion. But it sure looks a lot like last year where we will struggle to top .500.

Nolan Arenado

• should hit around 20 home runs
• the most optimistic projection is 107 wRC+, but three systems think that’s what he will do
• his value will still be based on defense
• The Bat X projection system which supposedly incorporates statcast data, thinks his hitting is going to fall off a cliff even more: 89 wRC+ (the only projection system showing him as a below average hitter)
• BABIP has never been Nolan Arenado’s friend... would be curious to hear your take on that
• Obviously it is still possible I will have to redo this if they trade Nolan 1 to install Nolan 2

Masyn Winn

• the projections project that he will hit around 12 to 18 home runs while fielding plus to plus plus defense... I think he might even hit 20+
• he is pegged to be a league average hitter by wRC+... I think he can do better than what they’re saying
• look for around 15 stolen bases this year

Willson Contreras

• OOPSY sees Willson as a 126 wRC+ hitter in 2025, while ZIPS 117 is his lowest projection
• It is safe to say that Contreras will be a 120 wRC+ or better hitter in 2025
• It is not safe to say how good he will be at first base, that is a huge question mark
• last year was his career year at the plate, albeit not in a full season: 140 wRC+
• so maybe he will outdo all of his projections, especially if he can really focus more on hitting and not catching (but will his move to first base force him to focus more on that)
• the projections don’t seem to like his defense but I don’t know if they think he will be a catcher or a first baseman

Brendan Donovan

• last year Donovan played in over 150 games, none of the projections think he will play that many, but then again it is tough to say exactly where Donovan will be playing, etc
• due to the amount of games predicted being at around 140 games, I think all the projections are underselling him when it comes to his averaged WAR projection
• the projections predict anywhere between a 109 and a 119 wRC+
• last year he maintained a 115 wRC+ in over 150 games while hitting 14 HR

Lars Nootbaar

• average wRC+ projection: 119
• probably going to hit 17 or 18 home runs
• Nootbaar is a career .348 OBP hitter and the projections consensus is right around that
• Nootbaar’s numbers just aren’t that exciting but he is a solid all around outfielder with plate discipline, and definitely needed (healthy) on this team
• hopefully he can have a career year one of these years and not get hurt as often
• I don’t think I can convince myself that he is a center fielder with Siani and perhaps Helman on the team (not sure how good he is in CF), which means either Walker or Donovan is not an outfielder with the platooned center field setup, which is my preference at this point

Alec Burleson

• 14-18 HR
• projections projecting 109 wRC+
• if he can match Steamer’s projection, that’s pretty decent at 115 wRC+ (outlier though)
• if you thought Nootbaar was boring, Burleson makes him look like an All Star imo
• DH I guess? I hope he outdoes what he has done in the past, at the least

Iván Herrera

• good defensive projections
• 107 to 116 wRC+
• if he’s the starting catcher he will probably hit 15 home runs
• if he platoons a lot with Pages it’ll be more like 8-10 home runs
• Herrera ran a high BABIP in the past, which is why his offensive projections look anemic... he was over 120 wRC+ in 2023 and in 2024, so I expect he will be more valuable than projected

Nolan Gorman

• 14-27 HR
• 103 average wRC+ projection
• tough to predict
• not projected to be a liability on defense

Jordan Walker

• OOPSY likes Jordan Walker in 2025: 2.2 WAR player
• projected to hit around 17 home runs
• Walker had a terrible BABIP last season and the projections know this, projecting a far better year at the plate than his 72 wRC+ in 2024
• Walker’s wRC+ projection looks to be a league average or better hitter
• none of his projections like his defense but especially ZIPS sees it as a problem
• at least he has a really good throwing arm if he has to play bad outfield defense?

Now onto the pitching side of things (skipping the bench)

Sonny Gray

• probably will pitch about 170 innings in 2025, or 185 tops
• 3.50 ERA average projection
• 3.50 FIP average projection as well
• Steamer thinks 3.42 xFIP
• really good pitcher!

Michael McGreevy

• surprise surprise, he just might be a key component of the starting rotation
• 3.89 average ERA projection
• 3.88 average FIP projection
• 3.71 xFIP projection from Steamer

Erick Fedde

• the ERA and FIP projections don’t look good, all well over 4
• last season he was at 3.3 ERA and 3.86 FIP so, there’s that
• on the plus side, he could very well outdo the average 2 WAR projection

Andre Pallante

• probably going to pitch around 150 innings this year
• average projection: 3.98 ERA and 4.02 FIP
• was definitely better than those rate stats last year
• should be more valuable than the projections say (1.63 WAR)
• if he can lower his walk rate he will become a whole new level of pitcher

Miles Mikolas

• 165 IP or so
• Yikes! at those rate stat projections
• this may be the year Mikolas gets pushed out of the rotation
• but he could still be a somewhat valuable innings eater

Steven Matz

• I don’t even know what to say, he is rotation filler or a swingman, but we have Liberatore already? the rate stats are no fun, but could just be totally off
• we don’t really know what is going on with Steven Matz
• maybe he will be a factor, maybe not

Ryan Helsley

• 11 K%! average projection
• 2.94 ERA average projection, and 3.07 FIP
• remember when he had a 4.7:1 K/BB ratio in 2022? the year he had a 1.25 ERA
• I’m a Ryan Helsley fan
• free agent next year, so it’s a contract season

special thanks to datawrapper for the visualizations! really excellent site

Finishing Up

I think the projections undersell Ryan Fernandez and Leahy quite a bit, but also could perhaps be giving us a warning about those two. Taking the outliers out of the projections didn’t change things as much as I might have thought, except in the cases of the younger players like the bench I listed, and Gorman and Walker. ZIPS is seeing several players as major league level players already with Jimmy Crooks III, Thomas Saggese, Michael McGreevy, and Quinn Mathews. What is interesting about Mathews is that the systems think he will pitch his way onto the MLB team, and even getting in half a season. Who knows if this is even remotely accurate, but fun to think about.

While it may be true that the team probably will not make the playoffs this year, I think there’s still a chance. And if not, the storylines of so many up and coming young players will be fun to follow. The roster situation will play itself out somehow through injuries and perhaps, trades. Who knows what could happen. Maybe we will be watching the rise of a new core of Cardinals, with Donovan, Nootbaar, Gorman, Walker, Saggese, McGreevy, Mathews, Herrera/Pages/Crooks, and of course Masyn Winn winning into the future.

Perfect Album Hall of Fame

Mo Dotti - ‘Opaque’

(here is the regular youtube link instead of youtube music)

One of my top albums of 2024 makes it into the hall rather quickly. This album was a revelation for me from some obscure shoegaze blog that listed their favorite albums from 2024. I don’t even remember what the blog’s name was, since I explored a bunch of year end lists in a flurry at the end and start of the year.

‘Opaque’ by Mo Dotti reminds me of one of my favorite shoegaze/dreampop bands Lush, especially with the album opener “pale blue afternoon”. They also conjure the requisite amount of My Bloody Valentine to appear on my radar. Yes, pretty much every shoegaze band I like comes from the MBV blueprint of shoegazer style music. Make that wall of blissful sound, distort it AND fuzz it out, please. Make it warble, shimmer, mutate, flow.

I must admit, this is one of my favorite albums of all time, and I would not have found it if I didn’t dig a little about a month ago. This album is heady ear candy of the best kind. There are very few things I could listen to every week, but this would be one of them. Nope, I’m not one of those people that listens to the same playlist every day. I’m also not a fan of any one band. I like variety.

This album does bring some variety even though they borrow a lot from the 90’s. It’s nice to hear this style of music being done still, because I think it shows the height of creativity within rock music, wedding massive sounding alternative rock with the future. Or at one time, it sounded like that. This is a genre that is a bit like heavy metal, it just won’t die. Even though it’s been done over and over again. There is certainly a formula to it.

But a lot can be done with this formula, and part of the appeal of this genre of music is its use of countless effects pedals of just about any variety, the more outlandish the better. It’s not just alternative rock, grunge, futuristic, it’s also very psychedelic! That’s where the sunny, shimmering sounds come in and warm up the sometimes ice cold depressing feel of some moments.

Mo Dotti, however, don’t visit the colder sounds of shoegaze. They almost always bring that sun shiny warmth and their joy in making this kind of music shows through every moment of this album. So much care was given to its production and vocal takes that it’s just absolutely perfect. It does sound a bit distant, a bit zoomed out in its feel. But all in all its just like walking on a nice summer’s day by a beautiful lake or the ocean.

The album doesn’t ever go too far out of this blueprint which gives it more approachability and dare I see it, maybe some mass appeal. It’s not the type of pop music you will usually hear, but it is at least, somewhat accessible and definitely catchy. The catchiness is driven by energetic but not overpowering drumming, and lots of guitar riffs, licks, and other charms.

Somehow this is a light airy version of a heavier, noisier shoegaze album, but with an elevated focus on the vocals, when compared to most bands in this genre. It is a subtle difference, but it serves to set them apart from the rest of the genre and gives them their own identity, moreso than many bands in this mold. I listen to this kind of music quite a bit and know the genre well, and there are many bands that sound pretty much the same. Mo Dotti just does it a little different but are in the cream of the crop when it comes to alt pop rock with some advanced features and enough tricks up their sleeves to keep it interesting.

If you listen to shoegaze enough, you will often hear the stretching and bending of time, ethereal sonic landscapes, driving rhythms, and lots of movement on a micro level as well as an expansive macro level of oneness. I have a lot of writing to do to warm up to it, but I would love to write a book about this genre of music. I have a different angle on it than most, looking for the louder and nosier bands, the most wild and psychedelic sounding. While keeping all the rock ‘n roll hooks and riffs in store for regular use, keeping you coming back for more.

This album does have its more forward thinking moments and may not sound pop at all to many people. As the album progresses it strives for a lot of different sounds and approaches which keep it a bit of a chameleonic creature throughout its runtime. By the time it reaches “wasted delay” it is reaching out into some more unfamiliar territory! But it still sounds like it belongs just where its at on the album. Yes, I am sort of live blogging this listen. Or freeform reviewing to the sounds of the album? I love it!

Oh yeah, I didn’t even realize it is Valentine’s Day this week. This album goes out to the lovers! Not the haters. Happy Valentine’s Day. I know it’s just a Hallmark holiday and the world sucks but hey, listen to this album anyway! I dare you.

To wrap up at over 3,000 words, I’ll bring it back to baseball and quote the Cardinals website as a reminder of what’s about to come:

The Cardinals’ Grapefruit League schedule features 16 home games and 16 road contests, though four of those road games will be against the Marlins, who also play at Roger Dean Stadium. In all, the Cardinals and Marlins will play against each other eight times next spring, the first of which will be St. Louis’ spring opener on Feb. 23.

Highlighting the Cardinals’ spring schedule are visits from the Red Sox, (Feb. 24), Yankees (March 7), Braves (March 14), Tigers (March 16) and Nationals (March 2, 15, 27). The Cards will make the long trek to Tampa, Fla., on March 11 for a rare road game against the Yankees. The team will play the next day against the Braves in Orlando.

The Cardinals, who have scheduled three off-days during their Grapefruit League schedule, will wrap up play in Florida on March 29 with a road game against the Mets in Port St. Lucie. St. Louis will then travel to Arizona for its season opener three days later.

Happy Pitcher’s and Catcher’s report day! Thanks for reading.

Your Cardinals baseball afficionado and music loving nerd,

George “dr. howl” Bowles