Reviewing the early off-season analysis and seeing how things turned out.
Pitchers and Catchers have reported. Full squad comes in next week. First official work out First ST game is Feb 22. I will be headed that way soon to catch some games and walk the back fields. Before I do that, I thought I’d check in on how the off-season is going (went?) for the Cardinals. To remind everyone, even though we all know this, transactions and movement can occur anytime. By the time you read this, something may have changed. But whatever it might be, I’ll put it in the category of a spring training-driven change of plans. This off-season wrap covers the transactions end of the World Series to today.
The starting point is really the post-season press conference they held to communicate their somewhat altered strategies and direction. Let’s see how that has played out so far.
I will work this review in somewhat linear fashion, following the format of the 6 (6!!) pre-season analysis articles that dissected various topics of concern. Not in any order or importance or priority. I’ll take each area of review and add to it (in italics) any personnel or organization changes that have occurred since the season’s end. In those prior articles, going all around the organization, I covered:
Who will be on 40-man roster and a look at 2025 Payroll
• Free Agent Options.
The Cardinals, as expected, declined all options available to them. Gibson, Lynn, Kittredge, Middleton.
• Protecting young players.
The Cardinals, as expected, added Tink Hence and Tekoah Roby to the 40-man roster, and they let Drew Rom fall off. In a bit of a surprise (to me, at least), they also added Matt Koperniak and Matt Svanson and dropped Adam Kloffenstein. This last one shouldn’t have been a huge surprise, given their tendencies, but I had missed his injured status.
• The Cardinals typically go into the Rule V draft with 39 players.
The Cardinals went into the Rule V draft (and GM Meetings) with 38 players, 1 spot for a position player and one for a pitcher. They picked 15th, and didn’t find anyone they liked was available by then, so they passed in the major league round. They did take a couple of guys in the minor league phase.
They did lose Connor Thomas. On the surface, that didn’t move the needle very much for me, but it did tickle a question of why they would keep 2 open spots for the Rule 5 draft, when they could have kept one more player on the 40-man (Connor Thomas, perhaps?) and still had flexibility. My working theory is that those two spots weren’t for the Rule 5 draft, but for other players (say, non-tender types) the Cardinals hope to bring aboard once they clear a bit more payroll. But they apparently didn’t clear enough payroll.
The Cardinals did manage to make it back to 40 players on the 40-man roster. I had to look it up to remember who. I believe 39 and 40 were Helman and Horn (a lefty).
• A brief look to the end of 2025 season and those Free Agent situations. Mikolas, Matz, Fedde, Helsley.
Unchanged. I’d expect all are in their last year in St. Louis, for different reasons. As postulated in a different article on the pitcher FA market, in other years, Fedde would be an extension candidate. Probably not this year, though.
• Some non-roster machinations of interest
Not specifically impactful to the 2025 roster, but their place in the 2025 amateur draft was established. You know it is a slow off-season when the lottery result is the big news. They will pick#5 in next year’s draft, an unexpected bonanza for the Cardinls. On top of that, they were awarded a pick in the B round of the competitive balance portion of the draft. This will help the long-term health of the organization but do nothing for 2025 (except give them another trade chip with that Comp B pick).
The challenges related to internal evaluation of prospects
• Gorman and Walker
Interestingly (to me, at least), I think the Cardinals evolved to choosing a strategy of letting Nolan Arenado move on so they could move Nolan Gorman back to his initial position. That tells me two things … First, they’ve seen enough of JJ Weatherholt that they don’t see second base as a long-term home for Nolan G. Second, whatever they see as the floor of Nolan Arenado’s performance over the next 3 years does not project as superior to what they think Nolan Gorman could provide in that same time frame, at least not enough to warrant $64m in payroll investment. Some might see this differently, but that is what I suspect the Cardinals have determined. But that pesky NTC….
Of course, publicly the Cardinals express great optimism for both their young hitters. They are in a great place, yada, yada. Great relationship with the new hitting coach. Brownie. Blah. Blah. Blah. The young players version of being in the best shape of their life. For some reason, talking points don’t really do much for me. I’m not predicting anything, but you could read early ST articles from the Mariners last year and read exactly the same things. Right down to adding the “ie” to the end of his name. Then their hitting coach was gone by mid-season under withering criticism from the manager, who himself was gone by Labor Day.
• The young pitching
The Cardinals did not protect young Darlin Saladin, who did well at Low- and High-A this past year. That told me 1) they were comfortable that he would not get drafted in the Rule 5 draft (he didn’t) and 2) the roster spot was more crucial to them than the talent they project he brings, in the event he did get drafted. Another data point for him was whether he got an NRI to spring. He did not. Not getting one isn’t determinative at his stage of development (and there are only so many spots), but if he got one, that would be saying something. I have gotten more interested in learning about VAA as a result of my research on him. Perhaps an article for another day.
I have a handful of names I will seek out on the backfields, if they are present. Matthews, Saladin, Salas, Branneli Franco.
Selecting the strategy
• Tank/fire sale?
• Reset/rebuild
• Retool
• Tweak the edges
So far, they appear to be following the more conservative (tepid?) reset route that I expected. They shed some payroll to reduce costs and have worked the edges of the roster by adding guys like Munoz, Barrero and Vilade. Look for Barrero to displace Fermin on the 40-man somewhere down the line. It probably depends on if Barrero has an opt-out or anything in his minor league deal.
Problem Areas/Challenges
• Highest paid players are not the most productive
This will be true again in 2025, I expect. Just a few less of them. By this time next year, this problem may have resolved itself. Mostly. But only if they clear Arenado and if Contreras does not have fall-off-a-cliff decline.
• Run prevention (pitching and defense) needs to advance some more
So far, no significant changes to this roster … I’d expect more of the same with what they have. Defensively, good in some areas, not so good in others. Placement will be key. They tend to play a lot of guys a lot of innings at positions that aren’t optimal, so individual match-up chosen day-in, day-out will have a way of adding up to a better or worse product over time.
I’d guestimate “average” overall. If Burleson has played his last game in the OF, that will be an improvement. For Arenado’s off days, I anticipate Gorman at 3B would be better than Gorman at 2B, but lesser than Arenado at third. Donovan at 2B is likely better than Gorman at 2B. In summary, mostly a push, but perhaps a little stronger up the middle, for the guys that buy in to positional adjustments.
The pitching is younger, but really appears remarkably unchanged, talent-wise. I’d say there is more downside risk to this rotation than the last one.
• Run scoring (hitting and baserunning) needs a serious upgrade
The strategy all along, here, was to let young hitters play and see how they develop, so very little off-season action was expected, except perhaps adding a RH hitting OFer. It’s not clear whether any of these are available. Almost half the teams in MLB have the same need.
Contreras to first base solves several problems (the production gap at 1b, the logjam at C). This team will be better offensively if the young guys hit. I’m not sure they can be much worse than 2024.
Stable Areas/Opportunities
• Winn, Arenado, Donovan make a good core group in the IF
Now I’d say Winn, Arenado, Donovan and Contreras seem to make a pretty solid IF, both offensively and defensively. It will take time to see how the defensive allocation between Contreras and Burleson over at first plays out.
I do wonder if they are going to put Donovan back out in left and have Gorman play 2b, if Arenado is not moved. Are they really willing to make the team worse to meet the goal of maximizing PAs for a few young guys?
• Contreras, Pages, Herrera provide depth at C (along with emerging prospects)
If we follow published expectations without skepticism, Pages and Herrera will be on a time share with two younger catchers (Crooks, Bernal) on their heels. Contreras moves to 1B. This was a classic Cardinals “path of least resistance” move.
• Untouched, the starting is cromulent, if lacking depth.
Gray, Fedde, Pallante, Matz, Mikolas with McGreevy first up is the current pecking order. It’s OK. This group doesn’t scream “fix me”, but another quality arm here would be comforting, as much to start plugging the 2026 rotation holes as anything. No hurry. They get two more bites at this apple (trading deadline, next off-season) to be competitive in 2026.
Using league-wide averages, the Cardinals should expect to have to cover about 40 starts outside of the group of 5. On top of that, this group carries unusual injury risk (Matz), age-related performance decline-risk (Gray, Mikolas) and young-guy-not-really-ready-risk (McGreevy). There will be plenty of starts for the other young pitchers, even if they were to acquire another more veteran arm.
• Untouched, the bullpen is pretty good.
I’m a bit less bullish on this group, but it is unchanged from season’s end and Kittredge departing, so the only thing that has changed is my perspective. I guess it seems OK unless they deal from this depth to fix other shortages, either late in Spring or at the deadline. Seems like Helsley, Romero, King will be trade talk all year.
Specific talent gaps
• Offense – OBP at top of lineup, ISO in the middle (particular of the RH variety)
• Defense – too many sub-standard defenders play too many innings
• Pitching – a bridge reliever (RH) and a solid starter (and an emerging starter gap in 2026)
• Baserunning – overall athleticism, base stealing ability
So far, only one of these issues appears to have materially changed. I can see where the thinking is that Walker, Gorman and Herrera will introduce more power (ISO) with more ABs than was present in 2024, so just clearing space for them to play more was the move here.
One can see where an internal OBP fix is available … a L-R-L combination of Donovan, Contreras and Nootbar at the top of the line-up would have decent OBP (at least a good bit better than last year). We will see if the Cardinals implement this.
I’m not sure if they acquired a RH bat to compliment Siani. Perhaps Helman? He seems more middle IFer, and I wonder if he is a throw-away that allows them to leave Saggese in the minors if Arenado hangs around, keeping Saggese playing every day.
As you look at the position player side, there are a few themes:
1. There are still two high-dollar contracts (Contreras, Arenado) that MIGHT be moved, this year or next. Always subject to NTC waiving, however.
2. There is a plethora of cost-controlled players with significant variance in their future projections. They need to see what they have.
3. There is a handful of lower-level talent that needs at least another year to emerge.
Weatherholt, Bernal, Crooks. Scott?
4. They have an over-abundance of DH-types, guys who have hitting pedigree but don’t play any position very well.
5. They are, at present, LH heavy and vulnerable to LH pitching as a result.
6. Overall, they need an infusion of athleticism and speed.
This all remains pretty much the same. Unchanged.
On the pitcher side, it’s a different story.
1. There are several contracts with negative surplus value (Gray, Mikolas, Matz) that theoretically could (and should?) be moved, but might not be that movable. Of course, cash fixes everything, right? But this is a cost-reducing era for this team, so cash is not in abundance.
Interestingly, the market for pitching has notched up enough that none of these contracts are underwater. Gray appears now to have a bit of surplus value, although the heavily backloaded nature of his contract gives pause. There might be some options here come the trade deadline.
2. There is a curious question of Ryan Helsley. A topflight closer on a team that really doesn’t need one (or does it?). ~$7m arb award expected. Not onerous for 2025. Closers don’t usually bring back much in prospects. Sometimes a deadline deal can result in an overpay, but that approach is not without risk. Hanging on to him through 2025 puts them at a decision point … offer the QO (to gain the draft pick and $$) but chance that he’d accept $20m, one year deal?
Helsley and the Cardinals pre-empt arbitration with an $8.2m settlement. The Brewers traded Devin Williams to the Yanks for a moderate prospect and 1 year of a mid-rotation starter to set the trade market. Nothing special. Wait til the deadline is the play here.
3. Like the position side, there is a plethora of cost-controlled players, but without the significant variance in projections. Most of these guys are middling prospects. Top side of #4-5 starter or low-leverage relievers.
There will be no shortage of innings for these guys to take a step forward with.
4. There are a few emerging pitchers (Matthews, Saladin, Hence, Roby) who might have somewhat higher ceilings, but they are likely a bit away from emergence and ascendance. Another year might be on the short side of the timeline for this group.
We wait. And hope.
5. They really need a top-flight starter to either emerge or be acquired. They will also need a closer. There is an old LaRussa/Duncan debate about whether you should build your staff from front to back, or back to front. In the Cardinals case, the need for 2026 is both ends, more so than the middle.
How 2025 evolves with the pitching may dictate how the Cardinal’s proceed overall. We have seen what top-tier starters costs in the open market. Hopefully someone in the system can take that step forward. Matthews? Hence? Roby?
In summary
So, that sums up where they are at, what they need, what they have.
And what they’ve done (or not) about it.
One of the key questions that was it was difficult to gauge how aggressive will the Cardinals be in resetting/rebuilding their roster?
I think they’ve established their approach as not very aggressive, certainly not a tear-down/fire sale or anything close. They remain true to their colors. Not a criticism. Not one of the players with NTCs has moved. Gray, Contreras’ desire to stay defined this early, as did Arenado’s willingness to waive his NTC only for certain teams, under certain conditions. Clearly, he’d rather stay in STL than play in Houston, if that tells you anything.
One thought. Just a data point. 3 veteran players with the total control of NTCs all basically chose to stay. At some point, one might read that their own personal evaluation of the Cardinals’ talent influenced that outcome, as compared to other situations they could have gone to.
One twist has come up and I’m not sure it has fully played out. During the off-season, the pitcher’s market evolved the same as it always does – prices appeared to go astronomic for the high talent/high value pitchers in the FA market and everyone else sat and waited. Who expected Max Fried at 8/$218m? This made (and makes) Matz and Fedde possibly more “moveable” as teams left out in the cold go looking in the bargain bin for the pitching they still need. Don’t be shocked to see a late Spring Training move here, although it’s not the Cardinals style.
One interesting twist to this. The 2025 roster projection is not awful. Lots of low-cost, controllable talent with some upside. A new wave coming (hard to say if it is low-low tide or a tsunami, but it’s coming). If you look at 2026/2027 projections, there is an argument to be made that the Cardinals should be in talent acquisition mode, if the opportunity arises. Do you suppose they can pull off being both in seller and buyer mode? Just wondering. I kind of doubt it, myself. It’s a sexy strategy, but not really their thing.
Nope. They keep waiting for the market to turn to them. Almost like they can only do things in linear fashion. The market didn’t cooperate, with the key to their exploits being Bregman, who signed pretty much last. They also introduce self-imposed constraints (like their own payroll cap and a desire to clear the decks for Bloom) that effectively prevent them from capitalizing on opportunities.
At his choice, Contreras stays and moves to first. I plugged him in at DH and left Burleson at first, but those two now appear somewhat inter-changeable. Interestingly, this seems to leave Gorman in more of a limbo since Arenado is not moved. Romero and Helsley staying make this bullpen workable. There is no shortage of innings to spread around young pitchers that need a shot, so no one is “blocked”.
This roster would be ~$54m less costly than the original projection I started with in Part 1. Crazy, but it wouldn’t be that much lower in projected in WAR than the original, if they got some MLB players back. Some of that $54m savings would probably be reinvested in the roster. Likely the spots with the (?) in them, and possibly a bullpen arm, but nothing burdensome. This roster leaves room for younger players to ascend mid-season (Davis, Hence, Matthews) when the inevitable performance failures and injuries arrive.
The ~$60 million in payroll reductions appears to have been the primary target. Target acquired. Not so much on the re-investment side.
Then, next off season could be spent bolting in improvements where needed, with another $40 million in unproductive contracts coming off the books to provide even more flexibility. If the revenue uncertainty is erased, the Cardinals could be “opportunistic”.
As I understand, the revenue uncertainty is removed for broadcast revenues but remains as to ticket sales and related revenue streams (concessions, merchandise, etc.). It sounds as if they need to move more payroll before acquiring more talent, so opportunistic isn’t really a thing this off-season.
In summary, the youth movement and churn in personnel has been primarily confined to organic roster changes (options, 40-man protections, etc.) and focused on changes in front-office and coaching, which is seeing its own youth movement. The scope of those changes is not insignificant but will take a bit to see the actual ramifications.
The roster itself is not awful but needs some targeted improvements in a couple of places. The defense could be better. Optimizing positions would help there. The outfield needs significant shoring up. But all along, this was going to be a 3-part reset (this last off-season, the trade deadline, and next off-season). We’ve just gone through the first part. Will see how this all plays out. Spring is a time of hope.
At the end of this, I suspect the 2025 season will play out as follows:
- Start with optimism.
- Followed by reality.
- Then, disillusion.
- Search for the guilty.
- Blame the innocent.
- Praises and honors for all non-participants.
