Also a chance to vote on the 16th best prospect
I have decided on my schedule. As you can see, today we are going to be voting on the #16 prospect. Pretty simple reason for this. I don’t love the idea of taking a long break from the voting. I like the idea of at least one vote per week. You can probably surmise that Thursday will be a season preview. I’ll probably have one Monday next week as well and then the voting will come uninterrupted until we finish. A surprise trade announcement would alter these plans.
To refresh your memory, Yairo Padilla won the latest vote. He actually won it pretty easily, which is I suppose not a surprise since he had the second most votes for the #14 prospect. But it’s also kind of a surprise because he was not the only one who was close to Koperniak in the voting. But the prospect rated #5 by Baseball America and #10 by Baseball Prospectus has entered the VEB rankings. The list is as follows:
- JJ Wetherholt, SS
- Quinn Mathews, LHP
- Tink Hence, RHP
- Thomas Saggese, 2B/3B
- Jimmy Crooks III, C
- Michael McGreevy, RHP
- Chase Davis, OF
- Leonardo Bernal, C
- Cooper Hjerpe, LHP
- Tekoah Roby, RHP
- Chen-Wei Lin, RHP
- Gordon Graceffo, RHP
- Sem Robberse, RHP
- Matt Koperniak, OF
- Yairo Padilla, SS
Comparable Player Corner
Alright, let’s get a reliever on this board. I ran comparable player polls in the last two votes for five different relievers, and we have whittled it down to just two relievers. In one player, you have someone on the 40 man, who is relatively likely to make his MLB debut this upcoming season. On the other, you have a player a bit farther away who probably has a higher ceiling. So at the end of the day, this is a ceiling versus certainty debate.
Luis Gastelum, who was signed out of Mexico in April of 2023. He will be 23 next season, and presumably at High A. Because he dominated Low A. He struck out 34.5% of batters with just a 5.4 BB%. It led to a 2.81 ERA and 2.12 xFIP.
Matt Svanson, a 26-year-old who the Cardinals acquired for Paul DeJong. He played all of 2024 in AA, striking out 20.8% of batters, walking 8.8% and managed a 2.69 ERA and 4.08 xFIP. He was also sent to the AFL, where he struck out 33.3% of batters while walking 4.4% of batters, but he also allowed 3 homers that led to a 5.91 ERA.
New addition
The Michael Helman acquisition screwed up the plans. Kind of. When I originally mapped out my reliever plan, I knew it would take up three comparable player polls. In that span, I had two players I knew I was going to add. The third player I flip flopped on, but as it turns out that third player ended up being Helman. He wasn’t added third, but my broader point is that it just delayed a guy I always wanted to add in this stretch. That would be a former VEB pick for the top 20, Jonathan Mejia.
Ian Bedell, RHP – 25
Stats (AA): 12 G, 64.2 IP, 29.5 K%, 7.1 BB%, 36 GB%, .265 BABIP, 4.73 ERA/4.59 FIP/3.46 xFIP
AAA: 9 G, 43 IP, 16.4 K%, 12.7 BB%, 37.7 GB%, .215 BABIP, 5.02 ERA/7.03 FIP/6.68 xFIP
BP: “The stuff is not overpowering but the arsenal is deep, allowing Bedell to turn over a lineup and stick as a starter.” (From June)
Bedell would probably rank higher on the list if he never got promoted to AAA. Although that would be a bad sign too. But no question his performance in AAA is going to hurt him, and it should really. But it is a tough place to pitch, both for the run environment and just getting adjusted to automated balls and strikes.
Won-Bin Cho, OF – 21
LYR: #11
Stats (High A): 107 G, 428 PAs, .227/.307/.305, 8.4 BB%, 31.3 K%, .078 ISO, .343 BABIP, 81 wRC+, 74 DRC+
BP: “Cho profiles favorably in the field, a solid corner outfield defender thanks to above-average speed and adequate reads, but is likely stretched in center field.”
I’ve stressed it in the past, but a belief in Cho, the prospect, necessarily requires that you sort of discard his past season. It was not a good year, there’s no way to make it look like a good year. But he also had a bad year in High A at 20-years-old, and most of this list were older than 20 when they reached High A. (Or haven’t reached it yet)
Michael Helman, 28 – IF/OF
LYR: Not in system
Stats (AAA): 72 G, 314 PAs, .271/.350/.487, 9.2 BB%, 24.2 K%, .217 ISO, .323 BABIP, 116 wRC+
BP: Much the same as Koperniak, I don’t know that BP has ever written a word about Helman.
Helman is admittedly a difficult prospect to judge, because we just learned who he was recently, he is 28, and we don’t even know what position he’ll play. Except a vague idea that he will play all of them. Why has Helman not made it to the big leagues yet? A combination of being drafted as a senior, COVID, and injuries.
Brian Holiday, 22 – RHP
LYR: Not in system
Stats (College): 16 GS, 113 IP, 28.6 K%, 4.2 BB%, .089 WHIP, 2.95 ERA
BP: “Because he’s short—listed at 5-foot-11—and has visual effort in his motion, he’s going to carry a future reliever tag until he doesn’t, but if the Cardinals are truly improving on pitcher development, Holiday has the type of arsenal they should start to see more successful outcomes with.”
There are two players that come to mind with Holiday. There’s the extreme best case, which is Quinn Mathews, and the extreme worst case, which is Griffin Roberts. I’m not comparing Holiday to them as pitching prospects, just the idea of having to rank a pitching prospect with no pro innings. (in Roberts’ case, no real starts). They could make unseen improvements and explode. Or their arm could explode.
Travis Honeyman, OF – 23
LYR: #20
Stats (Low A): 14 G, 60 PAs, .321/.367/.446, 5 BB%, 13 K%, .125 ISO, .375 BABIP, 133 wRC+
BP: Honeyman has a punchy little line-drive oriented swing, a tight barrel loop that generates explosive impact out in front of the plate. He’s geared to turn and burn, sending most of his contact to the pull side.
A position player with the injury track record of a pitcher is such a confusing thing. First off, it’s relatively rare. But also it may mean a string of bad luck or it may mean they never stay healthy. I’ve already used him in my example, but Tommy Pham is a perfect example that injury-prone in the minors does not mean you’re always going to get injured. It’s just not quite the same with position players as an injury-prone pitcher.
Jonathan Mejia, 2B/SS – 20
LYR: Unranked
Stats (Complex): 205 PAs, .299/.395/.425, 12.2 BB%, 25.4 K%, .126 ISO, .405 BABIP, 127 wRC+
BP: They have spoken about him, but it is extremely dated (from 2023) and things have changed too much to share.
Big news: I don’t think Mejia is a SS prospect anymore. He played both 2B and SS, but his primary position was 2B. More importantly was the guy who took his playing time, Arfeni Bautista. Bautista was Mejia’s teammate in 2022 and Bautista played 3B. When Mejia left for the states, Bautista moved to SS. When they were both teammates in 2024, it was mostly Bautista at SS. Now Bautista is awful offensively, so surely he’s here for his defense. But it doesn’t seem like a great sign to me.
Max Rajcic, RHP – 23
LYR: #12
Stats (AA): 25 G, 131 IP, 23.1 K%, 7.7 BB%, 39.2 GB%, .314 BABIP, 4.33 ERA/4.41 FIP/4.03 xFIP/4.59 DRA
BP: “He has a very pretty looking but humpy curveball, though his changeup has actually taken a step forward to claim the title of his best offspeed offering (to go along with various flavors of slider).”
Given the run environments of their respective leagues, I think Rajcic essentially pitched the same in High A as AA. He may have even pitched better in AA. He had the same amount of Ks, same amount of BBs, and got more groundballs in AA. He just allowed HRs in AA. As it turns out, you tend to allow more homers in Springfield than Peoria.
Rainiel Rodriguez, C – 18
LYR: Not in organization
Stats (DSL): 41 G, 184 PAs, .345/.462/.683, 16.3 BB%, 13.6 K%, .338 ISO, .345 BABIP, 186 wRC+
BP: “He hits the ball pretty hard for his age, makes enough contact, controls the zone well, and might stick behind the dish.”
The man featured in the cover photo with Padilla (which was a Twitter post by Cardinals Development sharing both made the DSL All-Star team). Rodriguez is not as much of a scouting darling as Padilla (though he posted better stats), but he dominated the DSL. Unfortunately, we do have some recent prospects who did the same and then it did not translate to the states. So it’s hard to say.
Darlin Saladin, RHP – 22
LYR: Unranked
Stats (Low A): 11 G, 60 IP, 26.8 K%, 7.4 BB%, 44.7 GB%, .287 BABIP, 1.95 ERA/2.61 FIP/3.29 xFIP/3.16 DRA
High A: 12 G, 63 IP, 27.9 K%, 6.2 BB%, 42.8 GB%, 42.8 GB%, .344 BABIP, 3.43 ERA/2.73 FIP/3.29 xFIP/4.00 DRA
BP: “Saladin is another low-VAA fastball oddity king; you can really see the Cardinals trending hard in this direction over the past few years. After three years mostly bopping around the complex, he showed up in A-ball this year and torched both levels working primarily off a low-to-mid-90s heater from a flat angle.”
I’m kind of excited to see how the surprise Low A guys perform this year. I don’t think I can remember a year where almost everybody seemed to pitch well out of nowhere at any level like what happened in Low A last season. Saladin is the only one who actually got promoted to High A, but just generally speaking, I’ll be curious to see how everyone translates (and Saladin translated just fine last year).
Zack Showalter, RHP – 21
LYR: #21 (He was close to winning 20th vote)
Stats (Low A): 24 G, 34.1. IP, 38.6 K%, 11.8 BB%, 43.9 GB%, .373 BABIP, 2.62 ERA/2.48 FIP/3.02 xFIP
BP: “His low-90s, sub-4 VAA fastball out of an extremely funky delivery was absurdly dominant against Low-A hitters, and he also weaponized a sweeper against same-side batters for a very tough look.”
There has been something of a debate in the comments about whether Showalter is considered a starting pitching prospect. I personally do even though he didn’t make a start last year. For one thing, I do not think it’s important that he actually start the game. Secondly, he’s young and has barely pitched in the pros. We saw how the Cardinals handled Tink, and this may be a more extreme version. His season was also cut a little short so I’m pretty sure he was supposed to throw more innings.
