The Cubs appear as NL Central favorites in 2025
There really is no other way to put it: the 2025 projection systems all agree that the Cubs should be better than the Cardinals this season. Let there be a moment of silence for that.
Well, there’s that experienced fan part of me that remembers plenty of years the Cubs were the favorite but were embarrassed by the Cardinals. But those were different times ruled by big media at a more sensational level, a big city vs a mid city. Luckily for us, the mid sized gem know as St Louis usually prevailed over Chitown.
Nowadays, things are much more data driven and the statistics are more advanced at least a little bit more accurate now. The most likely scenario is that the Cubs just have a better positional roster than the Cardinals (even with Nolan Arenado). The Cardinals just have too many question marks regarding age. The handful of star veterans are past their prime. The youngest of these Willson Contreras will have trouble matching 3 fWAR at first base. Arenado may also struggle to reach that pinnacle. And Sonny Gray is the oldest of the bunch and a pitcher, so there’s that. Even if he is an Ace.
And then there are all the up and coming young players. Another question mark. How will these prospects pan out in 2025? And even this year we may not know what we have in Walker, Burleson, and even Gorman and Winn who appear to be less big of question marks. Then there is Saggese, whom we know next to nothing about, who may play a big role. Even Helman! Just hard to say what the Cardinals are right now, other than in transition. Even catcher is very young and possibly undetermined. It is both an exciting and anxiety inducing time to be alive. And frightful.
The Cubs new star player Kyle Tucker leads the Cubbie charge on the northside of Chicago with Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner. Ian Happ, Pete Crow-Armstrong, and Seiya Suzuki make up a strong supporting cast. Michael Bush, Matt Shaw, and Carson Kelly may or may not drag those other six down. But they will probably hold their own.
The Cubs three stars are what really set the team apart from the Cardinals and probably the Brewers too (who I’ll get to next time). Their bench is actually pretty good, and their pitching corps is likely no better than ours in 2025.
Last week I meant to include the Cardinals projections spreadsheet I prepared, so this week I will provide both the Cardinals and Cubs projection average statistics in 2025 projected WAR. You can compare and contrast the two directly.
Cardinals projections spreadsheet
Cubs analysis
- Very caucasian
- Kyle Tucker and Dansby Swanson make up around 8.5 wins of their projected WAR total
- Cubs are roughly 6 wins better in starting position players
- Cubs bench expected to be a little better than the Cardinals
- The Cardinals appear to have a slight edge when it comes to the pitching staff
- The Cubs have simply brought in a couple of star players via free agency during the past few seasons, while the Cardinals matched that with the additions of aging stars Sonny Gray and Willson Contreras
Cardinals 2025 average projections article link (with graphs)
- 1B Busch vs Contreras: edge Cardinals
- 2B Hoerner vs ?: edge Cubs
- SS Swanson vs Winn: slight edge Cubs
- 3B Shaw vs Arenado: edge Cardinals
- OF edge Cubs
- Ace Steele vs Gray: edge Cardinals
- the Cubs appear to have the edge rotation-wise because of Imanaga, but it is impossible to quantify what St Louis will do for it’s SP given that it appears to have multiple longman bullpen arms to switch in and out between the rotation and bullpen (Mikolas, Matz, Liberatore, etc) and Andre Pallante and Erick Fedde appear to be difficult to quantify
- Closer edge Cardinals
The Cubs seem to have assembled its best team in a little while. In these studies I used 27 players for each team to come up with these average projected totals. Here they are:
I have the Cubs around 41 wins and the Cardinals around 34.56. The Cubs appear to have a six and a half win advantage in the 2025 transitional season. What we are transitioning into is anyone’s guess, but the Cubs are better positioned to take the NL Central than the Cardinals currently are. Only if our younger players surprise, our aging stars have one last good season, and the Cubs either have injuries to 2 or more star players or massive overestimation in certain players. Let’s take a look at where the Cubs projections could go wrong.
- Nico Hoerner could be anywhere from 1.9 to 4.2 WAR. Tough to bank on a number here.
- Seiya Suzuki might just be a 2 WAR player. But hey, we have Burleson at DH so the Cubs still have an edge here, probably.
- Michael Busch might only be a win above replacement level.
- Matt Shaw is unproven and could fizzle.
- Zips has Kyle Tucker a full win less than the average projection.
- Their pitching is unexciting outside of Steele and Imanaga, who must carry the team pitching-wise (imo).
That’s about all I have to say about the Cubs this year. They should be pretty good. But maybe not quite as good as projected. Next up I will analyze the Brewers, who could again be the sleeper team in the NL Central.
Album Hall of Fame
Primus - ‘Frizzle Fry’ was one of my high school soundtracks (and seas of cheese). I induct both albums today! What were some of your high school favorites?
