After not writing a post like this for the past two years, I just got to write it this year.
It’s 2023. There are demands that Jordan Walker make the team out of spring training. In fact, it is very clear he will make the team around this time in spring training. I was probably in denial about that, thinking surely they won’t do something so dumb. I had entertained the idea of making a post, but was “saved” by an obligation to finish out the top 20 prospect series, which I started fairly late and ran all the way to Opening Day. I really wish I would have written that post.
And that’s why I’m writing this today. It may age poorly. It may make me look like a fool. I welcome that. Please, by all means, let Victor Scott make this post age like milk. But there are no legitimate arguments for Victor Scott to make the Opening Day roster. There’s not.
I know what you’re going to say, at least people who disagree with me. What about spring training? Have we not learned our lesson? Spring training results do not actually matter. Not really. You do not let a great spring training supersede all other existing data that says that Victor Scott is not ready for the MLB quite yet.
Let’s look at a current MLB player who has been in the last two spring trainings. A relevant player too, someone who was on the verge of making the MLB roster, not an established veteran who clearly does not care. This player certainly cared about how he performed in both spring trainings. That player is Masyn Winn.
Winn had an unbelievably strong spring training in 2023, way better than Walker in fact. (I cannot stress enough how dumb it was that Walker made the team. He had a 102 wRC+ in spring training!) Winn had a 146 wRC+ that spring. He hit two homers, two doubles, and two triples, posting a higher ISO than he ever had in the minors. Winn was coming off a dead average season in AA.
What did this spring training tell us? Absolutely nothing. Winn progressed as you’d expect him to progress. He struggled in his first few months in AAA, with an 82 wRC+. He got hot for the next two months, got promoted to the big leagues and then struggled there. He then entered the 2024 spring training, at least theoretically, with his job on the line. Winn had a 34 K% and a 78 wRC+ in that spring training.
What did that spring training tell us? Absolutely nothing. Winn proceeded to have a 3.6 fWAR season with a stronger than expected bat. For the purposes of making MLB roster decisions, those spring trainings might as well not exist in Winn’s career arc. His 2023 spring training suggested he was MLB ready. He wasn’t. Last year’s spring training suggested he wasn’t MLB ready. He was.
Now to be fair, Scott is having a better spring training than Winn’s 2023. And also to be fair, I know spring training does have some correlation at the extremes, and Scott is on the positive end of the extreme. If Scott had a not very good 2024, I could be convinced that his spring training pushed him to make the MLB roster.
The problem is that he was much worse than not very good. He had a 40 wRC+ at the MLB level, and a 59 wRC+ at the AAA level. He needs to prove he can hit in AAA first. If he goes down and absolutely destroys AAA pitching for a month, okay then we can talk. But he needs to do it first.
Baseball-Reference has a helpful stat for spring training stats called opponent quality. According to their stat – which does not include yesterday’s 1-4 with a HR – his opponents have been a 7.6. 7 is AA and 8 is AAA. What this means is that, on average, he has played against pitchers not quite good enough for AAA. You can bleed spring training stats into the regular season to determine when Scott would get promoted. So, say that you want him to hit for half a season before he gets promoted. You can now shorten that to two months of the season because of spring. So in that sense, spring training matters. But you can’t do it based on 50 PAs.
It also happens to be convenient that, roster-wise, it also makes sense to send him down. Siani and Scott are effectively the same player. Siani had a good enough 2024 to deserve the chance to keep proving himself. I know Siani is having an awful spring training. It doesn’t matter. He had a great spring training last year, with a 117 wRC+. That really predicted his 64 wRC+.
Even if you think Siani is a bench player, the Cardinals roster is still prioritized by other players. Lars Nootbaar would be in CF, Brendan Donovan in LF (or Burleson), Nolan Gorman at 2B (or Donovan), and Burleson at DH (or Gorman). From a roster standpoint, I suppose it only makes sense for one of Scott or Walker to make the team.
And yes, I know Walker is having a horrible spring training. I get it. But Walker has better credentials to make the team than Scott. Because – say it with me – spring training results do not matter. Walker at least has a 116 wRC+ season in the MLB in his past. That’s way, way better than Scott can say. Even Walker’s disappointing 95 wRC+ in AAA and 72 wRC+ in the majors last year is a ton better than what Scott did in AAA and the majors. Walker’s spring also got interrupted by an injury, so I’m a little more forgiving of his bad stats.
Look, I don’t like to be the guy being a sourpuss on Scott. I put him on my top 20 list back in 2023, and VEB readers did not vote him in their top 20. I was, relatively speaking ahead of the curve. And then I got behind everyone else quickly. Let him develop like a normal prospect. A normal prospect needs to succeed at each level before promotion. Scott has not succeeded at AAA yet. Let him do that. Last year was essentially a lost year for Scott, because the Cardinals decided he was MLB ready. Scott by the way had a 117 wRC+ in spring training last year.
What players do statistically in spring training does not matter. I cannot emphasize this enough. It’s a good enough tiebreaker, but Scott is in competition with other players who he is not “in a tie with.” Walker is further along than he is. Siani is further along than he is. Development must take precedence. Let Scott develop.
I mean seriously, what’s the rush guys?! Keeping guys in the minors is not always about service time manipulation.
Barrero versus Fermin
To be perfectly honest, this is a much dumber controversy if you can call it a controversy. Here’s what happened. Jose Barrero hit two homers early in spring training and that essentially hid the fact that Barrero… didn’t actually have a good spring training. He had a 77 wRC+ in spring training, not counting his PH appearance where he failed to get a hit yesterday. He has a career 31 wRC+ in the majors. He had a 54 wRC+ in AAA last season.
Compare that to Fermin. Fermin has a 115 wRC+ – again yesterday’s 1-3 not included – with nearly triple the amount of walks to strikeouts. Yes, I have emphasized that spring does not matter. How about AAA last season? Fermin had a 145 wRC+ in AAA. Fermin’s 30 wRC+ in the majors is essentially the same as Barrero’s career number. Fermin has a projection of an 87 wRC+, Barrero’s is a 74 wRC+. There is legitimately zero argument for Barrero to make the team over Fermin.
Fermin is probably a AAAA player. I know this. You know this. But you got to at least see if that 145 wRC+ will translate even a little bit. He did that at 25-years-old. I don’t think 79 sporadic PAs (over 45 games! Lot of pinch-hitting there. He batted .059 as a pinch-hitter) is automatically enough to write him off.
