A reset? A transition? Not a rebuild. What’s in a word? It’s time to play ball
Spring Training doesn’t really close down until Monday, which is the actual getaway day, as the team heads for Memphis for a Monday exhibition game. With great hope, all story lines have been identified. Any new ones likely would be of the bad variety.
Many of you may have seen my recap of the trip I took to Jupiter earlier in Spring Training here. I won’t repeat that. But, based on those observations, watching and listening to games and following other reports out of Jupiter, I’ve collected and summarized some different story lines that emerged out of the camp. Some of these stories are not fully written and may not be for some time.
You will notice in here that “reset” or “transition” or “rebuild” or whatever term du jour is used is not a part of what I’m writing about today. That was pre-season fluff, and the pre-season is over. Moving on, Spring Training is pretty much done and there is a season to play. This will focus on how Spring Training outcomes effect the opening of the season.
Health
Sometimes the most elusive thing in spring is good health, especially among pitchers. Walker’s knee thing was a scare, but quickly because a non-story. Thompson experiences a lat set-back. Drew Rom had a setback with the shoulder, but had already been removed from the 40-man so really wasn’t part of the picture. Did we know that Winn had off-season wrist surgery? That was a detail I missed til yesterday. Otherwise, injury and rehab news has been blessedly absent. It’s been a quiet camp in a good way.
Finding Goldy’s replacement
There has been a notable absence of drama or consternation with either Burleson or Contreras playing first. Burly looks at least average over there, which is an improvement from his outfield days. Contreras actually appears like he was doing well. So far, first base is way down any list of potential concerns. It is quite possible that Contreras and Burleson to first improves 3 positions from last year.
The young pitching
Some of the most successful outings this spring were had by pitchers vying for spots on the roster. Think of them as the Memphis Under-Study’s. Graceffo, McGreevy, Robberse (after a horrible first day at the office). None of these guys seems ticketed for a #1 starter role, but perhaps they can bring some needed stability (and youth) to the back end of the rotation.
One point of contradiction has arisen in spring themes around the rotation. On one hand, overall, the Cardinals convey concern about their starting pitching depth at AAA. I gather they view Hence, Mathews and Roby as needing more time in development before being thrust into MLB action and are worried about whatever depth lies between the current rotation and these phenoms (Graceffo, Bedell, Robberse). On the other hand, there are rumblings that there still 7 guys in play for the rotation (includes McGreevy and Liberatore plus the 5 incumbents), and that they are considering a 6-man rotation. The two don’t quite go together.
There were a handful of really bad outings, but mostly by guys that are a number of steps away from contributing at the MLB level. In general, the pitching was at least cromulent.
Power remains Absent Without Leave
The Cardinals needed a late rush to avoiding finishing last in Grapefruit League scoring. Even Miami outscored them by 2 touchdowns and they play in the same power-suppressing stadium the Cardinals do.
The question is … Power, power, wherefore art thou? Last year, it seemed like the slug skill just melted away from all Cardinal hitters simultaneously. Arenado and Goldy never really found their power stroke. Contreras took his to the IL twice. Burleson tanked in the second half. Gorman went on a K streak and was not seen again. Walker couldn’t get untracked either.
Contreras looms as the most prodigious power hitter in this year’s line-up, and I’m not sure a low .800’s average OPS with a career max of 24 HR is going to strike fear on many mounds. Especially if he is the only power source, since other teams will just pitch around him.
Many will remind us that the RDS complex suppresses power (it does), but apparently other teams didn’t quite get the memo, as Cardinal SLG/ISO lagged their opponents this spring. And those guys played in the same conditions. And remember, they brought in the fences this year, so the power suppressing narrative may not be so valid anymore.
The Cardinal’s offense is going to be driven by how much sustainable power they can muster. Guys like Walker and Gorman are going to have to produce, as Arenado fades and Contreras can’t do it alone. Beyond those 4, power (ie. damage) is elusive. Scary as it sounds, Baker may become the most feared hitter.
The guys who have landed between prospect and established MLBer
These guys are the prototype “prospect fatigue” guys … the ones everyone expects to break out and the crowd becomes disenchanted when they don’t, often too soon. These guys remind us that except for the special ones (Acuna, Pujols), development is non-linear. They are also exhibits A through F of the erosion of the development department.
Gorman. Scott, Burleson. Walker. Liberatore. Herrera. What are they, exactly. Still TBD.
Of this group, Liberatore probably had the most impressive camp. He looked like a dude out to prove something. Unlike prior years, there is no question he makes the team. But in what role? He pitched well enough that I am sure it’s got people wondering if LH relief is the best role for him, but coupled with fear that they don’t want to move him from a role he appears to be establishing success in. But, man, if he could pitch like this as a starter…
Scott showed well. Obviously made some changes, carries himself with more confidence. It is one thing to look good in spring and a total ‘nuther thing to carry it into the regular season. For him, he needs the regular season to arrive. Which city will he start in?
Some intriguing prospects loom
Tekoah Roby fascinated many with his stuff and generally showed well in limited outings. Hence has special tools, as well. Mathews didn’t disappoint either. The Cardinal’s need some top-end talent in their rotation and perhaps these guys can help with that. But not Day 1.
Just for a moment … dream on Hence, Roby, Mathews and Liberatore emerging as envisioned. I saw glimpses when I was there, and I wasn’t even squinting. That would change the whole trajectory of the reset, huh? Moment over. TINSTAAPP.
JJ Wetherholt was the talk of early camp. He has some work to do, as his oppo swing didn’t play well at RDS, and if it doesn’t play well at RDS, it likely won’t play well at Busch, which will suppress whatever LH power he displays. But he looks like a keeper, especially for a non-roster guy in his first camp. Decisions loom about where to play him, but those do not have to be made today. He will be back.
The Cardinals appear to have retained their skill for developing decent players who can contribute, if not be stars. Saggese will be handy, although unlikely to star. Nathan Church looks to be the latest in the Skip or DD mold. Those are good guys to have around. They become the floor that speed, defense and solid fundamentals provide.
Roster construction and Line-up construction are Grounds under construction
Is Donovan a LF or 2B? Is Noot a CF or LF? Scott in AAA or MLB? Can they carry Siani in the everyday lineup? Where does Burly fit? Where does Gorman fit? Who are the 25th and 26th men? How do they choose? Offense or defense? Youth or stability? New or familiarity? Emerging or established?
Who leads off? Is OBP king or will they stay with Winn? Who gets slotted in the MOTO slots? Will established history prevail over future and untapped potential?
It is apparent that left-right matchups will define many of the line-ups, but that may not serve the purpose of the season, which is to get young guys PAs. Something has to give, and it may be a little something different each day. Well, when they said they’d provide PAs, they didn’t say they’d provide them with continuity.
The outfield
Where have all the outfielders gone? As spring progressed, it began to look as if Siani’s struggles may open a door for Scott. A productive, ascending Victor Scott would do much to alleviate this acute weakness on the roster. But does a good spring training lead to early season success?
Another good year of advancement from Davis would help, too. Unlike the infield, catcher or the rotation, the outfield position group lacks the depth that would allow the Cardinals to plug-and-play based on who performs. They are left with plugging infielders into the outfield to fill the gaps, often making two positions worse. They really have to hope that everyone in the pipeline ascends, quickly and becomes impactful. That is a tall order and exposes the main Cardinal talent deficit.
The bench
The Cardinals appeared to throw open to competition the last two bench spots. These spots were occupied by the likes of Crawford and Carpenter a year ago and represent perhaps the clearest sign of progress in this year’s transition.
The starting 9 (including DH) is pretty well set, depending on the handedness of the pitcher. The back-up catcher is known. The odd man out in the handedness equation (usually one of Burleson, Gorman or Siani) will be on the bench. That leaves 2 spots. Would they choose another young, ascending player to fight for PAs (Saggese? Scott?). Would they choose the defensive versatility and athleticism of a Barrero? How about general versatility and a bit more offensive firepower (Helman?). Do they need the RH pop of a Baker, and accept the defensive limitations? Do they feel the need to carry another true outfielder (Vilade? Koperniak?). Evidently not. Personally I think it unwise to sleep on everyone’s favorite, Jose Fermin. By all reports a glue guy. When PAs are scarce, sometimes it is the “other” attributes that make a guy valuable. Being on the 40-man roster breaks all ties, also.
Eight choices. Two spots. Realistically, there is probably way too much hand-wringing over who gets the 25th and 26th spots on the roster. Often times they find themselves in Memphis by June 1 anyway. There are trade-offs here, with all these guys. If there weren’t trade-offs, they’d be competing for starting spots, not bench roles. I’m fascinated to see how it plays out. Each day I have a different projection on what I think the 26-man Opening Day roster will be.
Ignoring the obvious
When it comes to the line-up (batting and the defensive alignment), there is an inescapable reality that has been patently ignored pretty much all spring. Being able to have 2 ST line-ups, one home and one away allowed for that. Having eight guys chase to two back-end roster spots distracts from it. But it is still there.
There are nine spots in the line-up. They are not going to pay Contreras $18m and Arenado $27m to sit. They will play. A lot. Donovan and Nootbar will play most every day, too, for obvious reasons. Where they play might be open to question, but their name will be on the line-up card as long as they are healthy. Pages and Herrera as a tandem will man the Catcher position and Herrera will bite into DH at-bats a fair bit. Winn will have Shortstop. That leaves three spots. On different days, the 3 spots might move a bit but they are, by-and-large, CF, RF and 2B.
In whichever three spots are open, they are somehow going to try and get an abundance of PAs for Siani, Scott, Burleson, Walker, Gorman. If you are wondering how you get 500 PAs for five players in 3 spots, that is a really, really good question. Some basic math tells us that those three positions will provide something like 1850 PAs. That might be high, given that they will hit at the lower end of the line-up, but let’s not quibble. 1850 divided by 5 guys brings you to an average of 370 PA each, well short of the targeted 500 (or more), way more than part-time DH PAs will muster after Herrera takes his nick and all this math ignores the PAs the other bench guys will consume. If you really feel the need to handicap who gets those end-of-the-bench roles, look to whom might contribute the most positively given VERY limited ABs.
From an evaluation standpoint, 370 (or even 500) PAs may not be enough to form a solid idea of their offensive baseline, even with their already accumulated history. They are most unlikely to evenly distribute the PAs this evenly, so the bottom line is two of these guys will get nowhere near 500 PAs (or 370) by season’s end. One is pretty easy to call … Siani or Scott will cannibalize PAs (and innings) from each other. Straight up. One wins, one loses. The loser could end up off the 26-man roster all together. Probably the most open position competition we’ve seen in these parts since Royce Clayton and Ozzie Smith. And it won’t be over on Opening Day. It may not be over on Opening Day 2026.
But how about the other three guys??? When asked, Oli says Burly is an everyday hitter. And Gorman will get 500 PAs. And Walker is cemented in right. No one has really called him on this, but the math doesn’t work. I get that injury and non-performance may well deal the hand for the Cards, but it that doesn’t happen, they will need a plan to navigate these choppy waters. If they muddle through, they may well get to mid-season and discover no one has had enough continuity to establish themselves.
On top of that, the traditional solution has been to mix-and-match on a daily basis, which disrupts continuity. When continuity is disrupted, execution tends to lag, both offensively and especially defensively. What many of these guys need is exactly that … continuity.
Impressions
It is funny how Spring Training impressions that vary from our expectations of a player can cause us to go “Hmmm…”. After 50+ years of watching these (I remember Al Lang Field), that “Hmmm…” that I experience is as often a mirage as a revelation. And damn if I can ever tell the difference. Then, in April/May, about 50% of the time I’d be “See, I knew it…”. The other 50% of the time “Well, he looks a lot different than spring…”.
The guys that seem to meet our expectations – no questions?
Contreras and Burleson seem fine at first base. Herrera and Pages seem fine at catcher. Herrera’s bat still looks for real. Arenado looks the same. Good fielder, declining power. Noot is Noot, when healthy. Siani still can catch the ball. The starting pitchers, generally, seem cromulent. Not great, not bad. Helsley is still a slow starter. We may not see 100 until early May. NBD. The left-side of the bullpen is not too shabby. Baker is what he is. Nice to have a RH bat with a little thump.
The guys that exceeded expectations – Mirage or revelation?
Victor Scott II did well, particularly with the bat. Benefits from lowered expectations, perhaps? Barrero did (by a lot), but we had no expectations. Gorman seems to be hitting better lately, with a more level swing. Revelation or mirage?
Roycroft seems different, in a good way. McGreevy, too. Can’t quite put a finger on it. Matthew Liberatore…Is there a guy who changed impressions of him more than this guy?
The guys that seemed to struggle – Illusion or harbinger of doom?
Winn hasn’t really gotten any traction. Sophomore slump? That wrist? Donovan didn’t have a great spring. Does he ever? Early spring Fernandez looked to be for real, but finishes with an ERA > 6. Hmmm….
Gray doesn’t seem himself on the mount. Those homeruns really piled up. Is he hurt? Just growing old? Or realizes the season doesn’t start until next week? FYI…I believe his pitch mix was around 80% breaking pitches in his last start. I’m suspecting that is NOT what hitters will see NEXT week.
Conclusion
If I had to summarize, which I don’t, but I will anyway…This spring has been one of cautious optimism, particularly about some of the emerging young players (no, the cupboard is not bare), mixed in with some doses of anxiety about how rough the offense could look and worry about how inconsistent the defense might be. So the season could end up like weather in STL. Kinda bi-polar, some really bad stretches followed by some really good ones.
There is enough talent here, and not so much elsewhere in the division, that you never know. Let the games begin. It promises to be a bit of a wild ride.
