Lets see how well I did at THIS prediction.
Starting Rotation:
Prediction:
SP1: Sonny Gray
SP2: Erick Fedde
SP3: Andre Pallante
SP4: Miles Mikolas
SP5: Steven Matz
Outcome:
SP1: Sonny Gray
SP2: Erick Fedde
SP3: Andre Pallante
SP4: Miles Mikolas
SP5: Matthew Liberatore
SP6: Steven Matz (starting April 16th)
Analysis: I did pretty well in this regard. Though, I did get thrown an Adam Wainwright sized curveball when, at one point, Matthew Liberatore was able to retire 21 of 22 batters faced. Even though Steven Matz did nothing this spring to NOT deserve a rotation spot; he doesn’t have a future on this team beyond this season and the Cardinals do need to answer the question of whether or not Matthew Liberatore can be an every 5th day starter in the big leagues regardless of whether that’s as a SP1 or SP5. If he can do it, that’s more valuable than a reliever. So I’m okay with being wrong in the interest of them answering a question for the future. 4 out of 5. 80% I’ll take a B.
Bullpen:
Prediction:
CL: Ryan Helsley
SU: JoJo Romero
SU: Ryan Fernandez
MRP: Matthew Liberatore
MRP: Nick Anderson
MRP: Riley O’Brien
MRP: John King
LRP: Kyle Leahy
Outcome:
CL: Ryan Helsley
SU: JoJo Romero
SU: Ryan Fernandez
MRP: Phil Maton
MRP: John King
MRP: Chris Roycroft
MRP: Kyle Leahy
LRP: Steven Matz
Analysis: I knew the Cardinals would carry a veteran reliever in their bullpen because they value that type of guidance for all of their young arms they tend to cycle through their bullpen in a season. What I didn’t expect would be that they would make their only MLB signing of the offseason with less than 2 weeks left in spring training. Which, in concurrence with Nick Anderson really not looking all that impressive in his spring performances, he wound up being booted in favor of the long-pursued Phil Maton. The only other part I really got wrong was that the 3rd lefty in the pen would be Matz rather than Liberatore by virtue of them swapping roles. 6 out of 8. A C+ is respectable enough.
Starting Lineup:
CF Lars Nootbaar
SS Masyn Winn
LF Brendan Donovan
1B Willson Contreras
DH Alec Burleson
3B Nolan Arenado
C Ivan Herrera
RF Jordan Walker
2B Nolan Gorman
Outcome:
LF Lars Nootbaar
1B Willson Contreras
2B Brendan Donovan
3B Nolan Arenado
DH Alec Burleson
C Ivan Herrera
RF Jordan Walker
CF Victor Scott II
SS Masyn Winn
Analysis: This was the lineup the Cardinals used last night in their “Battle of the Birds” game against AAA Memphis and Manager Oli Marmol said its pretty much the same lineup you will see on opening day minus one player, that one player being Sonny Gray rather than Andre Pallante, thus we have an answer on what this will look like Thursday. Noot at the top just makes too much sense and I’m glad Oli recognized that. It’s nothing personal against Masyn Winn but a .290 OBP isn’t good enough in the modern day of baseball for a leadoff hitter. Willson in the 2 spot makes a ton of sense and I’m really excited about he and Noot at the top. Donovan in that 3 spot makes a level of sense as well given that he’s a really strong situational hitter and pretty clutch in run producer situations.
Nolan Arenado at clean up makes sense to start the season. You give the known quantity every chance to start the season in a spot he’s most familiar with. He honored that spot in the lineup last night by hitting a 3 run home run in his only at bat of the game. Nolan is season ready and thus I. Am. Ready.
Burly in that 5 spot is one I got right! He just really profiles well as that 5 hole strong side platoon hitter and I’m glad to see him being utilized in a way I agree with. Same with Herrera at 6. I think those guys are going to have really strong seasons in 2025 and that’s going to help the offense be better than it was in 2024.
Walker at 7 makes sense as a starting spot for him in the season. I think we’re all hopeful that at some point during the season he’s doing so well they can’t help but move him up in the order but, at the beginning of the season, this makes sense.
Victor Scott II, well done, you made the necessary swing changes to put yourself in this position and took full advantage of the spring opportunity to shift the narrative enough to earn the opening day centerfield job. This will come at the cost for at bats to guys like Burleson and Gorman, and those are still guys you need answers on, and now adding Scott to that group can further complicate things, but at the same time you need to find out if Scott is the future in CF.
Masyn, Masyn, Masyn… I’m really worried you’re going to experience a sophomore slump in 2025 and if that’s going to be the case I’d prefer you be in the 9 spot of the order than leading off. I hope it’s just a slow start and not the entirety of the season. But he hasn’t been trending towards good results most of spring. 1 out of 9 is an F. But if you consider all the possible permutations that the lineup could’ve gone through. I still think getting 1 right is worth celebrating my otherwise failure!
Bench:
Prediction:
Pages
Baker
Siani
Helman
Outcome:
Pages
Baker
Gorman
Siani
Analysis: Pages and Herrera are going to split time at Catcher and I’m eager to see a strong tandem of TWO good young Catchers at the MLB level this season. Luken Baker showed some really impressive traits off the bench last season and he carried that over this spring and earned his spot on the bench as a late game weapon and potential weak side platoon option against lefties at DH. Michael Siani is a really solid 4th outfielder who can come into late game situations and protect a close lead with elite level defense. We know the struggles with the bat and that’s okay because he still fills a role for this team.
Finally there’s the Nolan Gorman of it all. I really felt like Nolan had some promising moments during spring and I felt he showed some improvement with strike zone recognition and discipline as the spring went on. I still think Gorman is going to get a long runway of opportunities but to not see him in the opening day roster is a mild surprise but one that ultimately will likely have little consequence on his seasons outcome. 3 out of 4. C’s get degrees!
In all I predicted 14 out of 26 spots correctly on the roster. Perhaps I graded myself on too harsh of a curve but, also, I don’t grow if I don’t hold myself to high expectations. Who cares it is baseball season! Go Cards!
-Thanks for reading
