And a chance to vote for the #8 prospect
Well, that was a blowout. Michael McGreevy won the sixth vote pretty decisively against two other players. For comparison’s sake though, Chase Davis got a higher percentage of votes against nine other players than McGreevy did against two. And like I said, McGreevy fairly easily won. Davis was a level of domination in the voting that I frankly don’t really expect again. Well, if it happens again, it’ll probably be this vote. The current list is as follows:
- JJ Wetherholt, SS
- Quinn Mathews, LHP
- Tink Hence, RHP
- Thomas Saggese, 2B/3B
- Jimmy Crooks III, C
- Michael McGreevy, RHP
- Chase Davis, OF
Comparable Player Corner
Can’t get much more similar than the two players today. Both were drafted in the 2022 draft, both are left-handed, both are I assume slated for AA in the upcoming season. The only real difference between the two is performance and age. In case you thought this would be an easy matchup, the player with the better performance is of course the older guy. So it’s not quite that straightforward.
Pete Hansen, a 24-year-old who carried a 24.1 K%, 3.86 ERA, and 3.56 FIP (3.65 xFIP) in 128 innings of work. He’s a command guy with a weak fastball and kind of mediocre stuff in general.
Brycen Mautz, a 23-year-old who carried a 23.8 K%, 5.18 ERA, and 4.86 FIP (4.01 xFIP) in 121.2 IP of work. He was also sent to the AFL, where he displayed a revamped changeup he developed late in the year.
New addition
I’m going to quote myself from a previous post: “I can wait to add (Rainiel) Rodriguez until Bernal looks like a contender to win the next vote.” Well the time has come. Bernal was one of just three players to get a double digit percentage of votes, so he is officially a contender to win the next vote. So early apologies for those very against the idea of a DSL guy being on a prospect list. Regardless of what I personally may think, these DSL guys are making national publication lists, which I’m not going to ignore.
I’m adding Rodriguez for more than that reason. He is also my new benchmark for catchers, having beaten Sammy Hernandez in a comparable player poll, and for DSL guys, having beaten Yairo Padilla in a head to head. Until he gets a significant amount of votes, no more catchers or DSL guys will be added. Worst case, he takes up one spot out of ten for the remainder of the voting and I get to remove two players from the voting who I definitely would have added at some point if I never ran comparable player polls.
Leonardo Bernal, C – 21
LYR: #13
Stats (High A): 96 G, 382 PAs, .270/.343/.419, 9.7 BB%, 22.8 K%, .150 ISO, .333 BABIP, 120 wRC+, 110 DRC+
AA: 14 G, 55 PAs, .204/.291/.286, 10.9 BB%, 16.4 K%, .082 ISO, .231 BABIP, 68 wRC+, 101 DRC+
AFL: 13 G, 51 PAs, .304/.373/.391, 9.8 BB%, 17.6 K%, .087 ISO, .361 BABIP
BP: A 20-year-old catcher who hits from both sides of the plate and has an assortment of well-rounded useful offensive abilities projects to be a starter more often than not.”
The switcher hitter technically saw three levels of baseball in the 2024 calendar year. He got off to a slow start in High A, but finished strong, leading to a promotion to AA. Hopefully, ending the season in AA allows him to avoid the slow start next season, although Baseball Prospectus seems to think he was very unlucky in those 14 games.
Won-Bin Cho, OF – 21
LYR: #11
Stats (High A): 107 G, 428 PAs, .227/.307/.305, 8.4 BB%, 31.3 K%, .078 ISO, .343 BABIP, 81 wRC+, 74 DRC+
BP: “Cho profiles favorably in the field, a solid corner outfield defender thanks to above-average speed and adequate reads, but is likely stretched in center field.”
I made a gamble that the high opinion of Cho last season (and the year before) would transfer to this year some, which hasn’t paid off so far, although few would argue he belonged in this tier of prospects anyway. He’s still very young, and there’s a very plausible scenario where he ends this upcoming season in AA at 21-years-old.
Gordon Graceffo, RHP – 25
LYR: #6
Stats (AAA): 27 G, 130 IP, 18.4 K%, 8.6 BB%, 40.2 GB%, .328 BABIP, 4.85 ERA/5.17 FIP/5.17 xFIP
BP: “He averaged 92.8 in Triple-A and 93.5 in a brief spell in the majors this season, and at that velocity his fastball shape really isn’t enough to miss bats and his changeup doesn’t play as well as a swing-and-miss pitch.”
Graceffo is in a weird spot as a prospect. I don’t really know how to judge the AAA pitchers who seem like they will end up in the bullpen, but where it’s still possible they end up starting. Those are not particularly impressive numbers, but remember the AAA run environment is such that it’s essentially close to average.
Cooper Hjerpe, LHP – 24
LYR: #7
Stats (High A): 11 GS, 37.2 IP, 35.2 K%, 12.6 BB%, 50.6 GB%, .297 BABIP, 3.35 ERA/3.57 FIP/3.38 xFIP/3.78 DRA
AA: 4 GS, 14.2 IP, 35.1 K%, 14 BB%, 24.1 GB%, .207 BABIP, 3.07 ERA/2.23 FIP/3.63 xFIP/4.76 DRA
BP: “That Sale-ish weirdo delivery gives Hjerpe a lot of the same positives as Sale, although nowhere near as pronounced and with some concerns attached…. He does not yet possess anything close to Sale’s ability to spot the ball around the strike zone, and his command and control remain spotty.”
If Graceffo is hard to figure out as a prospect, I would say Hjerpe is not any easier. He has a much wider range of possible outcomes. That is both a good thing and a bad thing. He carries injury risk and reliever risk, but also some ace potential. You have to somehow figure out how to take those ingredients and figure out where he ranks on here.
Chen-Wei Lin, RHP – 23-years-old
LYR: Unranked
Stats (Low A): 22 GS, 116 IP, 26.6 K%, 7.8 BB%, 45.3 GB%, .282 BABIP, 2.79 ERA/2.94 FIP/3.38 xFIP/3.82 DRA
BP: “Lin turns 23 next week and has yet to pitch above Low-A, but whenever a pitcher pairs this sort of velocity on his fastball with an extremely high-whiff changeup, the right dev team is going to have a lot to work with.”
At 6’7, Lin is a giant and easy to dream on. The only thing holding him back as a prospect, really, is the fact that he wasn’t young at the level he pitched at. He was in fact an older prospect who is somewhat expected to dominate at Low A. But you can’t control where you’re sent.
Sem Robberse, RHP – 23
LYR: #10
Stats (AAA): 16 G (14 GS), 84.1 IP, 21.8 K%, 7.8 BB%, 44 GB%, .273 BABIP, 4.59 ERA/4.77 FIP/4.61 xFIP/5.25 DRA
BP: Robberse at least has some whiffier offerings in his sweeper and hard changeup—which is only four mph off his fastball—and his cutterish slider has utility too, so of this group he might have the most relief conversion potential.
I don’t know if surprisingly young is the right word, but Robberse had his first taste of AAA as a 21-year-old and last year, he was just 22-years-old. In addition, he had his injury troubles that derailed his season a bit. Pitching what amounts to average (due to the run environment) as a 22-year-old in AAA is pretty solid.
Rainiel Rodriguez, C – 18
LYR: Not in organization
Stats (DSL): 41 G, 184 PAs, .345/.462/.683, 16.3 BB%, 13.6 K%, .338 ISO, .345 BABIP, 186 wRC+
BP: “He hits the ball pretty hard for his age, makes enough contact, controls the zone well, and might stick behind the dish.”
Say what you will about the fact that he did it at the DSL, those are about as perfect of stats as you can get. We pretty much instantly knew Malcolm Nunez’s stats were a mirage when he came over, sucked in Low, and was merely average in the GCL. I doubt the Cardinals send Rodriguez to Low A, but the obvious difference is Nunez was a 1B in the making and Rodriguez at least has a chance to stay a catcher.
Tekoah Roby, RHP – 23
LYR: #4
Stats (AA): 7 GS, 33.1 IP, 21.4 K%, 7.8 BB%, 37.4 GB%, 6.75 ERA/6.59 FIP/4.19 xFIP/5.47 DRA
BP: “Roby is a stuff-model darling. The problem is that Roby just can’t stay healthy, and even when he pitched this year his stuff wasn’t as sharp and he got tattooed.”
Your belief or non-belief in Roby is probably entirely connected to your belief or non-belief in his AA stats. And also your belief or non-belief in his injury status. It’s been a couple years, but Roby has in fact thrown 100 innings in a season before, which I suppose isn’t much comfort, but the Cardinals have a couple prospects on this list who can’t say the same.
Darlin Saladin, RHP – 22
LYR: Unranked
Stats (Low A): 11 G, 60 IP, 26.8 K%, 7.4 BB%, 44.7 GB%, .287 BABIP, 1.95 ERA/2.61 FIP/3.29 xFIP/3.16 DRA
High A: 12 G, 63 IP, 27.9 K%, 6.2 BB%, 42.8 GB%, 42.8 GB%, .344 BABIP, 3.43 ERA/2.73 FIP/3.29 xFIP/4.00 DRA
BP: “Saladin is another low-VAA fastball oddity king; you can really see the Cardinals trending hard in this direction over the past few years. After three years mostly bopping around the complex, he showed up in A-ball this year and torched both levels working primarily off a low-to-mid-90s heater from a flat angle.”
Saladin is certainly a pitcher who is working the opposite way most prospects seem to do. Instead of having good scouting and hoping the stats follow, Saladin has the stats and maybe the scouting will catch up. I don’t know if anybody had written a word about him prior to 2024.
Zack Showalter, RHP – 21
LYR: #21 (He was close to winning 20th vote)
Stats (Low A): 24 G, 34.1. IP, 38.6 K%, 11.8 BB%, 43.9 GB%, .373 BABIP, 2.62 ERA/2.48 FIP/3.02 xFIP
BP: “His low-90s, sub-4 VAA fastball out of an extremely funky delivery was absurdly dominant against Low-A hitters, and he also weaponized a sweeper against same-side batters for a very tough look.”
Showalter is older than Tink Hence when he was on the same program, but I believe last year was Step One of the Tink Hence program. He is technically listed as a reliever, but I’m pretty sure that was a way to limit his innings. He certainly pitched well enough to deserve a shot to start.
