Earlier this offseason, John Mozeliak made it clear he intended to trade Nolan Arenado. Fast forward to mid-January and the Cardinals still have yet to make a single roster move. Arenado is still a Cardinal, and the clock is ticking on the timeline to trade him prior to the season.
Trading Arenado was seen as the best way for the Cardinals to lower payroll, and I think it still is. But there are a lot of factors holding things up at the moment. Alex Bregman has yet to sign, and while he is confirmed to still want a long-term deal, there still doesn’t appear to be any traction in his market. Wherever Bregman signs will likely determine what the Cardinals do with Arenado. If he signs somewhere other than the Red Sox, then the Cardinals have a clear path to send Arenado to Boston, which appears to be his last option for being traded.
But because there are so many unknowns, I believe it’s time for the Cardinals to pivot away from trading Arenado, at least for now. I assume Mo will comment on this at Winter Warmup, but I think that as of now, we should all expect Arenado to be a Cardinal to start 2025.
What’s next for the Cardinals?
Where do the Cardinals go from here, you ask? Well, Katie Woo noted that if they can’t trade Arenado, they’re going to have to pivot to trading some pitchers. This includes Erick Fedde and likely Steven Matz. I also would like to take this moment to officially jump back on board with the idea of trading Ryan Helsley to a contender. The Cardinals can still get a good return for him, especially while his value is high.
But if trimming payroll is the goal here, as well as building for the future, there is still a way to do that and receive good prospects in return, even without trading Arenado.
Fedde, Matz and Helsley all are entering the final year of their respective deals. Matz won’t get you much, but Fedde could at least fetch a decent prospect or two after a strong 2024. Fedde is making $7.5 million in 2025, while Matz still has $11 million left on his deal and Helsley is making $8.2 million after receiving a raise in arbitration.
If the Cardinals trade all three pitchers, then they would be clearing out $26.7 million in total, which isn’t nearly as much as you could clear out by trading Arenado, but it still does give them some good salary relief and leave a little room for some value additions in free agency as the offseason winds down.
Unless the Cardinals are willing to eat a little more money with Arenado, or Bregman signs soon, it’s looking very likely that they’re going to be stuck with him, at least for the start of the 2025 season. I don’t see Bregman’s situation being resolved for a little while, which in turn will further delay the Cardinals plans to reset and build for the future.
This is why it’s time to shift gears and trade some pitchers. Fans are losing patience, and it’s time to at least trade some assets and put the 2025 plan in motion.
